I'm trying to cope with the current situation by basically being in denial about losing KK, so here are my thoughts on the Habs roster moving forward.
It is eminently mediocre, but with good balance.
The team will take a hit at 5v5 and the center position is back to being inadequate, although there is quality depth on the wing, as there was last year. Overall, the forward group remains slightly above average.
The defense, however, is below average. Edmundson, Chiarot are still supremely overrated defensemen who do not affect the game positively. They bring physical play, and are unremarkable at everything else. Habs really need to bring in another PMD without rushing Norlinder.
Simply by injecting a little bit more mobility at the blueline, the Habs could get much closer to playoff contention:
Price should have his best season in years, with Allen as the backup and some renewed confidence from the cup run. If injuries are avoided, this should be one of the best goalie tandems in the league.
As it stands, Habs are likely to be on the outside looking in, in what promises to be a terribly competitive division. A resurgent PP might be key in allowing the team to make the playoffs. Hoffman and Caufield are both elite, pure shooters. Losing Weber will allow those two to be very trigger happy on the PP.
That being said, it’s important to be realistic.
The center position is back to not being very good. Jake Evans has endeared himself to many fans, but he’s still a 25 year old with subpar impact at 5v5. For the Habs to succeed, he needs to take a major step and become a legitimate 2-way 3C. I don’t believe that’s the right role for him.
I think Ryan Poehling could be the X factor here. It is true many have given up on him and some knowledgeable people don’t like his game:
I personally think he could surprise everyone and become an impactful 3C right away for the Habs. His first professional year did not go well, for several valid reasons (including a concussion and being rushed to the NHL), but there is a lot to be optimistic about.
His track record is very similar to Josh Norris of the Ottawa Senators. Of course Norris has been immensely more successful at the professional level, but I think Poehling still has a similar potential. His sophomore season in Laval went really well, and he seems poised to become a good NHLer.
It’s not ideal (at all!), but with the unfortunate (and cruel) loss of KK, a lot hinges on Poehling’s performance.
Roster talk
In my view, this is the most optimal configuration of the forward group, as it stands:
Hoffman Suzuki Caufield
Drouin Dvorak Anderson
Toffoli Poehling Gallagher
Perreault Evans Armia
(Lehkonen)
Notes:
The thought-process is as follows. Hoffman is not a good player at 5v5, but he is an amazing offensive weapon. He won’t create many chances on his own, but that’s not necessary. Caufield is basically a star and is both a scorer and a playmaker. Along with Suzuki they could become a terrifying offensive line which scores at a high rate.
Dvorak needs a playmaker, and is friends with Anderson who is also close friends with Drouin. Anderson needs to be better than he was last year, but that’s a decent line, with complementary skills and all three guys are around the same age (25-27).
Toffoli and Gallagher are both dominant wingers at even-strength, and will insulate Poehling while giving him the perfect opportunity to succeed. As I said before, it’s not ideal, but it’s a necessary leap of faith.
For the fourth line, Perreault/Lehkonen can alternate but I think it should be acknowledged that Perreault is a very good pickup by MB. He is just about as good a bottom 6 player as you can wish for. Along with Armia, that’s a very good 4th line.
Moving on to the defensive pairings.
Edmundson-Petry
Kulak-Savard
Romanov-Chiarot
Edmundson and Petry will likely stay together because their on-ice results were pretty good last year, at least in terms of goal differential. I think Petry has to do much of the heavy lifting and isn’t helped by Edmundson one bit, but that’s not a popular perception.
Savard was still a great player as recently as 2019 and will be an adequate replacement for Weber. He will have to rediscover some of his Columbus abilities for the Habs to make the playoffs. Kulak is the only guy who can legitimately support him in the right ways, but I fully expect the team to lean on Chiarot once again.
Closing thoughts
The Habs could make the playoffs, but the likelihood is that they will not. They simply don’t have a great team. If several things go well it could happen, but that’s always the case.
This was a very underwhelming off-season, and you’d be hard-pressed to argue that the Habs are a better team than they were last year.
I think the Panthers, Leafs, Lightning, Bruins are all better than Montreal. Ottawa might be in the mix too. None of that matters, because at the end of the day, hockey is unpredictable and that’s why we play the games.
My prediction: they get in on the back of a great PP (driven by Caufield and Hoffman) and solid goaltending from Allen and Price.